I was this close…
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Politics and other crap
If you want to talk about anything other than football, do it here and here only. Thanks. Read More “Politics and other crap”
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For people who get stressed by the experts’ preseason predictions. -
I would be OK with these for the “Color Rush” game. -
Presented without commentary
Except that Ricky has no fashion sense.
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Quarterback Mediocrity on the Horizen?
Current NFL strategies are largely based on the wide open nature of modern offenses being run by historically excellent quarterbacks. But will this trend continue? Here are the top 20 active starting quarterbacks ordered by QB ranking, with their ages at the end of this season:
Rank Quarterback Age at End 2016 Rating 1 Aaron Rodgers 33 104.1 2 Russell Wilson 28 101.8 3 Tony Romo 36 97.1 4 Tom Brady 39 96.4 5 Drew Brees 38 95.8 6 Philip Rivers 35 95.5 7 Ben Roethlisberger 35 94 8 Matt Ryan 31 90.9 9 Matt Schaub 35 89.1 10 Andy Dalton 29 88.4 11 Cam Newton 27 88.2 12 Carson Palmer 37 88.1 13 Jay Cutler 33 86 14 Matthew Stafford 29 85.8 15 Ryan Tannehill 28 85.2 16 Andrew Luck 27 85 17 Joe Flacco 32 84.7 18 Alex Smith 32 84.5 19 Eli Manning 36 83.5 20 Matt Hasselbeck 41 82.4 Let’s assume that quarterbacks who will be 35 or over by the end of this season will be retired within three more seasons. By the end of the 2019 season quarterbacks in this list would range from age 38 to 42. A quick glance at the above table shows that this group includes most of the elite talent of today.
What would be left in the wake of this gutting of talent would be the following, excluding any infusion of new talent:
Rank Quarterback Age at End 2019 Rating 1 Aaron Rodgers 36 104.1 13 Jay Cutler 36 86 17 Joe Flacco 35 84.7 18 Alex Smith 35 84.5 8 Matt Ryan 34 90.9 10 Andy Dalton 32 88.4 14 Matthew Stafford 32 85.8 2 Russell Wilson 31 101.8 15 Ryan Tannehill 31 85.2 11 Cam Newton 30 88.2 16 Andrew Luck 30 85 The average rating of today’s top 10 QBs is 95.31. The average rating of the top 10 remaining after the current crop of old timers retires is 89.96. That is a significant decline in league-wide QB talent – roughly the equivalent of a drop from Tom Brady to Matt Ryan, or a drop from Ben Roethlisberger to Matt Schaub.
Now of course new talent can and will enter the NFL in the interim, but the incoming draft class appears to be solidly mediocre. Even if a new star is found in each of the subsequent three drafts, this will not be sufficient to replace the 8 or 9 elite quarterbacks likely to be lost during that period.
What these facts suggest is that the current pass-heavy offense-oriented style of the NFL may be changing, and long term planning for a team’s offensive and defensive style should probably take these facts into consideration.
